Geopolitical and national security experts said the West Philippine Sea issue and the existence of illegal Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGO) will be among the key election issues in 2025.
The experts made the statement during a post-State of the Nation Address forum on Wednesday, organized by Democracy Watch Philippines, in partnership with Stratbase ADR Institute.
While inflation remains to be the most urgent national concern, Stratbase President and geopolitical expert Professor Dindo Manhit also expects China’s information warfare in the Philippines and the proliferation of POGOs to be important election issues in 2025.
“Disinformation, misinformation, and cyber security threats impact our politics, impact our lives. We have seen that not only on security issues. We see that also in the political discourse. That’s why I have shared that we are still in a pandemic of misinformation, and we need to stop the spread of disinformation topic in the West Philippine Sea and even in economic issues,” Manhit said.
“They have weaponized social media. They have organized message targeting and propaganda campaigns through trolls. They have amplified disinformation and public opinion manipulation in social media platforms like Facebook and YouTube. There is an information warfare and we consider this an issue as we go into the 2025 election,” he added.
Similarly, Manhit said POGOs, its connection to Alice Guo, a Chinese national, who was able to infiltrate Philippine politics, and the network of human trafficking links and other related crimes are significant threats to the country’s national security and peace and order situation.
“POGOs have been linked to various illicit activities, including money laundering and human trafficking. These undermine the rule of law and governance in our country. Worse, they are also a threat to our national security considering the proximity of some of these Chinese-led businesses to military facilities,” Manhit said.
“It is a legitimate concern that China could leverage the presence of POGOs and use them as Trojan Horse to compromise the country’s security framework. The reports of alleged PLA uniforms found in some POGO hubs are alarming indicators that they can be used for covert operations or intelligence-gathering,” he explained.
In his last State of the Nation Address, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr ordered the banning of POGOs and emphasized the need to uphold the country’s sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea.
Foreign policy expert Professor Renato De Castro said the competition between Philippines and China is not just happening in the West Philippine Sea but also in the cognitive realm through China’s malign influence operation.
“China’s actively conducting cognitive warfare, basically trying to change the narrative and of course, what I call the psychological milieu of the Filipinos regarding this very important issue. The most important point, of course, is to inform our people how to be able to identify whether this disinformation we are getting is a part of China’s malign information warfare,” he said.
De Castro said the Filipino people should work together to address these security issues, especially as the country approaches another election season.
“Our main competitor here, our main threat, is powerful, determined, and, of course, has always relied on, you know, an incremental approach in achieving its goal… You have [malign influence] operations happening here. You have an election that will be happening next year. So it’s a chance for us to create a narrative that will unite us in the face of this challenge,” he explained.
Geopolitical expert Richard Heydarian also believes the West Philippine Sea issue will be one of the defining and emotionally-charged issues in the upcoming 2025 elections.
“We’re going to see, I think, for the first time in recent memory, West Philippines and foreign policy issue becoming one of the, not number one, but top three, at least, issues that will define upcoming elections,” he said
“It’s not one of the most urgent issues, but it is emotionally charged. And if you embed it or nest it in a bigger narrative about corruption, crime, treason, when you put it in that context, I think the West Philippine Sea issue can be a more politically potent point, not only in the upcoming elections, but also for the administration,” Heydarian explained.
Political Science Professor Alma Salvador said the existence of POGOs and the illegal activities surrounding its operations show the weakness in the country’s regulatory institutions.
“The indictment against POGO is really an indictment against our institutions. The fact that we’ve allowed POGOs that are very much related to transnational criminal activities in which some Chinese or a lot of Chinese are also being implicated, says something about the robustness or the lack of robustness of our regulatory institutions,” Salvador said.
“If we are to achieve our [economic] goals in 2040, then we need to be able to capacitate ourselves, even institutions that would allow us to progress and achieve our economic and our security goals,” she added.
EXPERTS: WPS, POGOs AMONG KEY ELECTION ISSUES IN 2025 ELECTIONS
